Abstract

The Vhembe biosphere, a UNESCO-designated reserve in South Africa, faces severe biodiversity loss due to socio-economic and environmental drivers. This study analyses data from 1990 to 2018, including education, employment (Statistics South Africa), and bioclimatic data (WorldClim), with terrain data from SRTM. Using multivariate logistic regression and AIC in R-Studio, the best model (AIC = 28) showed strong predictive power. Results reveal that no schooling and rising tmax-12 and tavg-12 significantly increase biodiversity loss (p < 2e-16), while higher employment and precipitation improve biodiversity outcomes. Four frameworks – Socio-Ecological Systems, Human Capital Theory, Climate-Biodiversity Theory, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve guide interpretation – underscoring the need for better education, jobs, and climate policies.

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